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financial health – ai

Here’s an interesting discussion with “AI” chat regarding interest rates.

ai chat

It exemplifies the limitations of ai when asked to perform some critical thinking.

Works fine when asked about worldly knowledge though.

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When life presents us with problems requiring critical thinking, I’ll just rely on good ol’ fashion experience and intuition.

financial health – fed watch

I hope everyone has been able to put a little money on the side.

Here’s an interesting chart gauging FED activities :

fed watch tool

By clicking probabilites on this tool, we can see the probabilites of what the markets believe the eventual fed funds rate. Currently, there’s an 75% probabilty that the FED will keep rates steady at 4.25 – 4.5% in July’s meeting. However, there’s a 70% chance that the FED will cut rates by .25 in September.

If FED cuts rates by .25, then 3 month t-bills will go down to about 4%. As 3 month rates track fed funds.

I’ll roll 3 to 6 month t-bills into 1 year t-bills as they redeem. I would do this as long as 1 year t-bills yield more than 4%.

Why go out to one year ?

On the probabilty chart, there’s a 60% chance the FED will cut again in October by another .25. Then, the one year purchased around 4% will be yielding more than the 3 month rate.